Xi also said China will try to reach its emissions “before 2030,” which is a change to the country`s initial NDC under the Paris agreement on peak emissions “around 2030 and at best to reach its peak very early.” While the new language pushes back the current schedule for peak emissions earlier, it leaves the exact year unclear, opening the door to further potential announcements to improve commitments for 2030. These could, for example, come in response to new commitments from other countries or regions. The 14th FTA, which expires next year, is expected to contain new caps for coal and benchmarks for renewables; the energy policies it contains could have the most significant impact in the medium term on the global energy portfolio of each single legislative document. The government published in 2020 a draft of its first energy law, which highlights the importance of energy efficiency and renewable energies, without making concrete commitments. The new National Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), which will start in 2020, is theoretically expected to accelerate the exit of inefficient coal-fired power plants, although the government ministry has recently proposed relaxing carbon intensity criteria. Primary energy consumption by fuel type in the strategic package. The bright colors show the share of primary energy use in China from non-fossil fuels, including biomass (light green), nuclear (dark purple), hydropower (orange), wind (blue), sun (yellow), geothermal (purple), diesel biofuel (dark blue) and biofuel (dark green). The total share of non-fossil fuels in China`s primary energy consumption is gradually increasing to 19.86% by 2030. Therefore, China will almost meet its commitment of 20% of primary energy consumption from non-fossil fuels by 2030 China has committed to increasing its CARBON emissions by 2030, with the best efforts to reach its early peak and reach 20% of non-fossil fuels by 2030 as a share of primary supply.
These commitments were included in China`s national contribution to the 2015 Paris Agreement on climate change. We develop and apply a mixed methodology to analyze the likelihood that current Chinese policy will reduce greenhouse gas emissions in line with China`s Paris commitments. We assume that China is likely to reach its emissions well before 2030 and reach its non-fossil target, provided that all current policies are fully and effectively implemented, energy sector reform is completed, and a national emissions trading scheme (ETS) is fully implemented after 2020 for the electricity sector and other important industrial sectors. Several policy gaps are identified and discussed. Political pundists and green activists hailed China`s step forward as a big step forward. Laurence Tubiana, a French diplomat who played an important role in shaping the Paris Agreement and is now the head of the European Climate Foundation, said: “Xi Jinping`s commitment to achieve emissions by 2030 and achieving climate neutrality by 2060 is welcome. . . .